2011 Milletvekili Genel Seçimleri Anketi

CHP never trailed. It opened around 43-45% on day one and held a steady low-40s cushion over MHP through the middle stretch — never once ceding the lead across 163 days and 5,329 votes. AKP sat a clear third the whole way, and no lead change ever happened.

The real turning point wasn't a lead swap but a surge: starting near day 90, CHP's margin climbed from the low 40s to 51% by day 112 and held there to the finish, finishing at 51.3% (2,736 votes) to MHP's 21.9% and AKP's 16.4%. Turkish voters dominated the sample, and men outvoted women roughly 6-to-1 across every party.

• Wire-to-wire winner · CHP led on day 1 and never once lost the lead
• Late-poll surge · CHP's margin jumped from 41% to 51% between day 90 and day 112
• Lopsided gender split · CHP voters were 105 men to just 18 women
• Turkey-dominated turnout · 110 of the sampled votes came from Turkey, leaning CHP