الاستفتاء الشعبي لترشيح رئيس الجمهورية

Amr Moussa opened with a real lead — 33% ahead on day one, fading to 24% by day eight. Then it broke: on day nine, Mohamed ElBaradei flipped it outright and held a steady 30% edge for the next forty days without a single shift. A second surge around day fifty pushed that lead to 40% — and it never moved again through the final 65 days.

ElBaradei closed at 40.3% (1,340 votes), more than double Moussa's 19% (632), with Ahmed Shafiq a distant third at 9.7%. Every major country in the sample backed ElBaradei — Egypt, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait — except Tunisia, the lone outpost still with Moussa.

• The only flip · Moussa's lead collapsed in a single day and ElBaradei took over for good.
• 65-day flatline · Lead sat frozen at 40-41% from day 50 straight through day 115.
• Tunisia held out · Every top country backed ElBaradei except Tunisia, still with Moussa.
• Final margin · ElBaradei's 40.3% more than doubled Moussa's 19% at the finish.