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Nearly three in four ballots came from the United States — and that bloc leaned Paraná. Brazil's own voters pulled the other way, backing São Paulo. With the country of origin split against the loudest voting bloc, São Paulo still edged it, 30% to 28%, a two-point cushion built on home turf over 2,854 votes.

The states drew different rooms entirely: Paraná's coalition was 21% male, São Paulo's just 5% — over four times the male share. Paraná grabbed the lead by day 3 and sat on it for 95 days before São Paulo reclaimed the top spot on day 98 and held it the rest of the way.

• Geographic Split · US cast 74% of votes and leaned Paraná; Brazil backed São Paulo
• Final Margin · São Paulo beat Paraná by just 2 points, 30% to 28%
• Gender Gap · Paraná's voters were 21% male versus São Paulo's 5%
• One Flip Back · Paraná led for 95 days before São Paulo retook it on day 98