استطلاع رأي حول مرشحي رئاسة جمهورية مصر العربية لعام 2011

Mohamed ElBaradei opened with a 33% lead on day one, riding early buzz. But by day 4 Mohamed Selim El-Awa overtook him and the race never turned back — El-Awa held a steady 30-31% margin for the remaining 162 days straight through to the finish.

El-Awa closed at 29.9% (8,917 votes) to ElBaradei's 27.8% (8,285), with hardline Islamist Hazem Salah Abu Ismail a distant third at 15.5%. Egypt and its expat strongholds — the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait — all leaned El-Awa; only Canada and Germany broke for ElBaradei.

• Day 4 turning point · El-Awa overtakes ElBaradei and leads for 162 straight days
• Early frontrunner faded · ElBaradei led 33% on day one, finished second
• Diaspora vs. Europe split · Egypt, Gulf states lean El-Awa; Canada, Germany lean ElBaradei
• Men dominate turnout · El-Awa's base is 87% male, steeper than the field